-- Dana Higgins
Title: How to Measure Legislative Compactness If You Only Know It When You See It
Authors: Aaron Kaufman, Gary King, and Mayya Komisarchik
Abstract: The US Supreme Court, many state constitutions, and numerous judicial opinions
require that legislative districts be “compact,” a concept assumed so simple that no
definition is offered other than “you know it when you see it.” Academics, in contrast,
have concluded that the concept is so complex that it has multiple theoretical
dimensions requiring large numbers of conflicting empirical measures. We hypothesize
that both are correct — that the concept is complex and multidimensional, but
one particular unidimensional ordering represents a common understanding of compactness
in the law and across people. We develop a survey design to elicit this understanding,
without bias in favor of one’s own political views, and with high levels of intracoder and intercoder reliability (even though the standard paired comparisons approach fails). We then create a statistical model that predicts, with high accuracy and solely from the geometric features of the district, compactness evaluations by judges and other public officials from many jurisdictions (as well as by redistricting consultants and expert witnesses, law professors, law students, graduate students, undergraduates, ordinary citizens, and Mechanical Turk workers). As a companion to
this paper, we offer data on compactness from our validated measure for 18,215 US
state legislative and congressional districts, as well as software to compute this measure
from any district shape. We also discuss what may be the wider applicability of
our general methodological approach to measuring important concepts that you only
know when you see.