[gov3009-l] paper available: Chris Winship this Wed@noon

adiamond@fas.harvard.edu adiamond@fas.harvard.edu
Mon, 1 Dec 2003 17:11:22 -0500

Chris Winship's paper is available at


Research Workshop in Applied Statistics

Please join us this Wednesday @ noon at CBRSS,
the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences,
34 Kirkland Street, Rm 22, for a presentation by Professor Christopher Winship.

His talk is titled
"A General Strategy for the Identification of Age, Period, Cohort Models:
A Mechanism Based Approach"
(coauthored with David Harding)

*ABSTRACT* (Abridged)
To date, the suggested strategy for identification of the APC model has been to
specify some set of restrictions on the effects of Age, Period, and Cohort that
allow the model to be identified. Generally, this is done by either restricting
a set of coefficients to be equal or by requiring the effect of a variable to
be proportional to some other variable... We suggest that it is meaningful to
talk about causal effects in APC models if one can specify the mechanisms that
are involved and these mechanisms are manipulable, which typically will be the
case...	This paper offers an alternative approach to the problem of
identification.  The core of the estimation strategy is to specify the
mechanisms through which the variables of interest are supposed to work.  In
contrast to previous research that has focused on identification through
restrictions, our method involves identification by augmenting one’s model to
include the variables that specify the mechanisms by which the variables of
interest are assumed to affect the outcome.  Our approach allows for a much
broader set of identification strategies than has typically been considered in
the literature. Also, in certain circumstances, different model specification
tests are possible. Most importantly, our approach demonstrates the importance
of theory for the identification of APC models, particularly theory as the
specification of the mechanisms by which different processes are assumed to
work. We illustrate the utility of our approach by developing an APC model for
political alienation.

As always, lunch will be provided.

Contact information, the current schedule, and previous presentations may be
found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/


The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate
students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work
in progress and exchange ideas.  It is intended as a tour of Harvard's
statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in
different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine,
political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology
and statistics.  The topics of papers presented in previous years
included missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample
selection, and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and
student participants in the workshop present their current projects,
and guest speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop
provides an excellent opportunity for informal interaction between
graduate students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course
credit is available for students as either an upper-level Government
or Sociology class. Lunch is provided.

If you are interested, note that all events are held at noon, in Room 22,
Center for Basic Research in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is
the yellow building across the street from William James Hall).
Contact information and previous presentations may be found at the course web
site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/

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