[gov3009-l] Feb 4th: Lock on "Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election Forecasts"

Justin Grimmer jgrimmer at fas.harvard.edu
Mon Jan 26 10:41:00 EST 2009


Dear Applied Statistics Community,

The first meeting of the applied statistics workshop will be one week from
this Wednesday, on February 4th, when Kari Lock, Graduate Student in the
Department of Statistics, who will present "Bayesian Combination of State
Polls and Election Forecasts".   Kari provided the following abstract:

A wide range of potentially useful data are available for election
forecasting: the results of previous elections, a multitude of pre-election
polls, and predictors such as measures of national and statewide economic
performance. How accurate are different forecasts? We estimate predictive
uncertainty via analysis of data collected from past elections (actual
outcomes, pre-election polls, and model estimates). With these estimated
uncertainties, we use Bayesian inference to integrate the various sources of
data to form posterior distributions for the state and national two-party
Democratic vote shares for the 2008 election. Our key idea is to separately
forecast the national popular vote shares and the relative positions of the
states.

Once again, there will be no workshop this Wednesday, but our first meeting
will be on Feb 4th.

Hope to see then—

Cheers
Justin Grimmer
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