[gov3009-l] Applied Statistics Workshop: Michael Weissman on October 12

Konstantin Kashin kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Tue Oct 11 01:51:19 EDT 2011


Hi all,

Michael Weissman has kindly offered to meet Wednesday morning before the
workshop with anyone who may be interested in talking to him about his work
in a more casual setting. Please let me know if you are interested and we
can work out the logistics.

Best,
Konstantin



On Mon, Oct 10, 2011 at 1:29 AM, Konstantin Kashin
<kkashin at fas.harvard.edu>wrote:

> Dear all,
>
> Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
> Wednesday, October 12 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Michael
> Weissman, a Professor Emeritus from the Physics Department at the University
> of Illinois, will give a presentation entitled "From Fourier to Forensics".
> As always, a light lunch will be provided.
>
>
> The abstract for the presentation is:
>
> *Although the statistical and systematic problems of public opinion polls
> are fairly widely recognized, we tend to assume that published polling
> results reflect some sort of actual poll. In 2009 a prominent blog suggested
> that the pollster Strategic Vision might be fabricating data, based in part
> on surprising deviations from uniformity of the distribution of trailing
> digits of the results.(
> http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/strategic%20vision) Objections
> were raised to the assumed uniform distribution, but we were able to use
> Fourier analysis together with known polling statistics to show that the
> results were weird even if that assumption were dropped.
> http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C03E1DA123AF930A25751C1A96F9C8B63
> *
> *
> *
> *In 2010 we were contacted by a political consultant who had noticed
> anomalies in Research2000 poll reports. Using a variety of elementary
> statistical techniques, we showed that those results could not have
> accurately represented real polls. (
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_2000) Unfortunately, we do not know
> if there are other bogus pollsters, disguising results via a random binary
> generator (cost $0.01).*
>
> An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
> http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
>
> Best,
> Konstantin
>
> --
> Konstantin Kashin
> Ph.D. Student in Government
> Harvard University
>
> Mobile: 978-844-0538
> E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
> Site: http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kkashin/
>
>


-- 
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University

Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kkashin/
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