[gov3009-l] Applied Statistics Workshop: Michael Weissman on October 12

Konstantin Kashin kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Fri Oct 14 17:59:45 EDT 2011


Dear all,

Since some of you have expressed interest in seeing the full paper version
of the talk that Michael Weissman gave earlier this week, and Michael and
Jamie Robins generously agreed to share their paper, I'm circulating it to
the list.

Best,
Konstantin


On Mon, Oct 10, 2011 at 1:29 AM, Konstantin Kashin
<kkashin at fas.harvard.edu>wrote:

> Dear all,
>
> Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
> Wednesday, October 12 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Michael
> Weissman, a Professor Emeritus from the Physics Department at the University
> of Illinois, will give a presentation entitled "From Fourier to Forensics".
> As always, a light lunch will be provided.
>
>
> The abstract for the presentation is:
>
> *Although the statistical and systematic problems of public opinion polls
> are fairly widely recognized, we tend to assume that published polling
> results reflect some sort of actual poll. In 2009 a prominent blog suggested
> that the pollster Strategic Vision might be fabricating data, based in part
> on surprising deviations from uniformity of the distribution of trailing
> digits of the results.(
> http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/strategic%20vision) Objections
> were raised to the assumed uniform distribution, but we were able to use
> Fourier analysis together with known polling statistics to show that the
> results were weird even if that assumption were dropped.
> http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C03E1DA123AF930A25751C1A96F9C8B63
> *
> *
> *
> *In 2010 we were contacted by a political consultant who had noticed
> anomalies in Research2000 poll reports. Using a variety of elementary
> statistical techniques, we showed that those results could not have
> accurately represented real polls. (
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_2000) Unfortunately, we do not know
> if there are other bogus pollsters, disguising results via a random binary
> generator (cost $0.01).*
>
> An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
> http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
>
> Best,
> Konstantin
>
> --
> Konstantin Kashin
> Ph.D. Student in Government
> Harvard University
>
> Mobile: 978-844-0538
> E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
> Site: http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kkashin/
>
>


-- 
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University

Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kkashin/
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