[gov3009-l] Applied Statistics Workshop: Adam Glynn on Wed., April 11

Konstantin Kashin kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Mon Apr 9 11:30:43 EDT 2012

Dear all,

Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, April 11 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Adam
Glynn, an Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Harvard
University, will give a presentation entitled "Using Post-Treatment
Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive
Selection Procedures in New Democracies". As always, a light lunch will be


> In this paper we propose an adjustment based on post-treatment variables
> for some standard estimators of the average treatment effect on the
> treated. Under relatively weak conditions, this adjusted estimator will
> provide an upper bound for the effect and in some cases lower bounds on
> p-values. Additionally, this approach does not place a restriction on the
> outcome variable and allows for multiple mechanisms by which the treatment
> has an effect on the outcome. We also demonstrate that this adjustment will
> reduce the estimated effect in a wide variety of circumstances, and
> therefore, when the assumptions for the adjusted estimator are preferable
> to the assumptions for the unadjusted estimator, the adjustment can be used
> as a robustness check. This method is illustrated with an assessment of the
> effects of using plurality rules for the first multi-party presidential
> elections in third wave of democracy in sub-Saharan Africa.

This is joint work with Nahomi Ichino.

An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at


Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University

Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>
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