[gov3009-l] Applied Statistics Workshop: Omar Wasow on Wed., April 18

Konstantin Kashin kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Mon Apr 16 01:01:31 EDT 2012


Dear all,

Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, April 18 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Omar
Wasow<http://www.omarwasow.com/>,
a Ph.D. candidate from the Department of Government and the Department of
African and African American Studies at Harvard University, will give a
presentation entitled "Violence and Voting: Did the 1960s Urban Riots
Reshape American Politics?". As always, a light lunch will be provided.

Abstract:

Between 1964 and 1971, more than 750 riots flared up in black neighborhoods
> across the United States. Scholarship on how the American polity respond to
> these violent protests is contested. Some scholars argue that urban riots
> produced a conservative ``backlash'' among white voters, while other
> scholars find little or no effect.  Using a measure that incorporates the
> location, timing and severity of urban riots between 1964 and 1971, I
> examine whether increased exposure to urban riots is associated with
> decreased support for the Democratic party. In the 1964, 1968 and 1972
> presidential elections, I find a strong negative relationship between
> exposure to civil unrest and the county-level Democratic vote share. I find
> a similar negative relationship between exposure to riots and Democratic
> vote share in congressional elections between 1968 and 1972. Finally, I
> find that in counterfactual scenarios of fewer riots the Democratic
> presidential nominee, Hubert Humphrey, would have beaten the Republican
> nominee, Richard Nixon, in the 1968 election. As African Americans were
> strongly identified with the Democratic party in this time period, my
> results suggest that, in at least some contexts, political violence by a
> minority group may contribute to a backlash among segments of the mass
> electorate and encourage outcomes directly at odds with the preferences of
> the protestors.



An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.


Best,
Konstantin

-- 
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University

Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>
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