[gov3009-l] Applied Statistics Workshop: Rocio Titiunik on Wed., February 8

Konstantin Kashin kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Mon Feb 6 01:30:33 EST 2012


Dear all,

Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, February 8 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Rocio
Titiunik, Assistant Professor from the Department of Political Science at
the University of Michigan, will give a presentation entitled "Using
Regression Discontinuity to Uncover the Personal Incumbency Advantage". As
always, a light lunch will be provided.


Abstract:

We study the conditions under which estimating the incumbency advantage
> using a regression discontinuity (RD) design recovers the personal
> incumbency advantage in a two-party system. Lee (2008) has introduced RD as
> a method for estimating what is generally considered the "partisan"
> incumbency advantage. We present a causal model with some simple but
> plausible assumptions that allows RD to be used to estimate the "personal"
> incumbency advantage, as an alternative to sophomore surge, retirement
> slump, and other commonly used measures. We estimate the incumbency
> advantage using our model with data from U.S. House elections between 1952
> and 2008. Using the assumptions of our model, we also explore the
> estimation of the incumbency advantage beyond the limited RD conditions
> where knife-edge electoral shifts create the leverage for causal inference.


This is joint work with Robert Erikson.

An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.

Best,
Konstantin

-- 
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University

Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin at fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kkashin/
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