[gov3009-l] Applied Statistics - 4/6 - Chris Winship and Ethan Fosse

Aaron Kaufman aaronkaufman at fas.harvard.edu
Sun Apr 3 13:06:03 EDT 2016

Hi everyone!

This week at the Applied Statistics Workshop we will be welcoming *Chris
Winship*, Diker-Tishman Professor of Sociology at Harvard University,
and *Ethan
Fosse*, Post-Doctoral Researcher in the Department of General Education at
Harvard University. He will be presenting work entitled *Bounding Analyses
of Age-Period-Cohort Models**.*  Please find the abstract below and on the

As usual, we will meet in CGIS Knafel Room 354 from noon to 1:30pm, and
lunch will be provided.  See you all there! To view previous Applied
Statistics presentations, please visit the website

-- Aaron Kaufman

Title: Bounding Analyses of Age-Period-Cohort Models

Abstract: For at least 80 years researchers in a wide variety of fields
have sought to uniquely identify age, period, and cohort (APC) effects,
even though an infinite number of solutions exist due to perfect linear
dependency. In this paper we introduce a new approach for identifying APC
effects based on bounding feasible regions of the parameter space.
Depending on the location of the solution line in the parameter space,
minimal constraints on the direction and magnitude of the linear trends can
lead to substantively meaningful conclusions. Furthermore, bounds can be
derived from mechanism-based modelsthat specify the processes by which one
or more of the linear effects affect the outcome of interest, even when
such models are misspecified. Unlike previous methods, our approach is
based on applying theoretically-relevant and empirically-derived
constraints only on those components of the APC effectsthat are
unidentified. To illustrate the usefulness of bounding analyses of APC
effects, we examine trends in verbal ability and perceived well-being. In
contrast to previous research, we find strong overall effects for period
and cohort forboth outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian
interpretations ofbounding analyses as well as guidelines for further
research on APC effects.

Aaron R Kaufman
PhD Candidate, Harvard University
Department of Government
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