<div dir="ltr"><p class="MsoNormal">Dear Applied Statistics Community,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Please
join us this Wednesday (October 15<sup>th</sup>) when Stephen Ansolabehere, Professor in Harvard's Department of Government, will present his work on "Vote
Validation in the 2006 CCES".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Stephen
provided the following abstract,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">New technology and recent political
reform have made vote validation an easier and</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">more reliable process than it has
been in the past. We present a basic summary of the</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">vote validation procedure used in
the 2006 CCES, a Web-based survey of nearly 35,000</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">Americans that has been validated
electronically with new state-wide voter files. As</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">the validation method in the CCES is
quite different from the method used by the</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">National Election Studies (NES) in
the 1960s through 1980s, we compare the CCES</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">procedure and results with the most
recent midterm elections validated by the NES.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">We show that while the rate of vote
misreporting is substantially higher in the 2006</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">Web-based survey, the pattern of
misreporting is consistent with the NES samples. We</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">also show how the large sample size
in the CCES can be exploited to study phenomena</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:CMR10">beyond vote misreporting using the
validated records.</span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10"></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><br></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">A paper is available for download here (<a href="http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~jgrimmer/AnsolabeherePaper.pdf">http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~jgrimmer/AnsolabeherePaper.pdf</a>)</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">The applied statistics workshop meets at 12 noon in Room K-354,
CGIS Knafel (1737 Cambridge St), with a light lunch.<span style="mso-spacerun:
yes">&nbsp; </span>Our presentations begin at 1215 and usually conclude around 130
pm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>As always, everyone is welcome!</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Cheers</p>

<span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-fareast-font-family:
&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">Justin Grimmer</span><br></div>