<p class="MsoNormal">Dear Applied Statistics Community,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Please join us this Wednesday, October 29<sup>th</sup>, when
Michael Kellerman, PhD Candidate in the Department of Government, will present
his work on <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>"Electoral Punishment as Signaling
in Subnational Elections".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mike
provided the following abstract,<br></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: CMR10; ">It is a well-established empirical
regularity that parties in federal office suffer setbacks in state-level
elections. Many authors attribute this to a desire on the part of voters to
balance the policy preferences of the federal incumbent. In this paper, I
consider an alternative explanation with a long tradition in the literature:
voters punish the party of the federal incumbent in state elections in order to
send a signal to the federal government. I construct a simple signaling model to
formalize this intuition, which predicts that under most circumstances
signaling can occur at only one level of government. I estimate a statistical
model allowing for electoral punishment using data from German elections and find
support for punishment at the state level, rather than the punishment at both
levels implied by balancing theories.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10">&nbsp;<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; "><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10"></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; "><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10">Mike also provided a copy of his
paper, available here: </span><a href="http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kellerm/balsig.pdf">http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~kellerm/balsig.pdf</a></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">&nbsp;The
applied statistics workshop meets each Wednesday in room K-354 CGIS-Knafel,
1737 Cambridge St, Cambridge MA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>The
workshop convenes at 12 noon with a light-lunch, presentations usually begin
around 1215 and conclude by 130 pm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>As
always, everyone is welcome!</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Cheers</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Justin Grimmer</p>