<p class="MsoNormal">Dear Applied Statistics Community,</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">The first meeting of the applied statistics workshop will be
one week from this Wednesday, on February 4<sup>th</sup>, when Kari Lock,
Graduate Student in the Department of Statistics, who will present "Bayesian Combination
of State Polls and Election Forecasts".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span>Kari provided the following abstract:</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10">A wide range of potentially useful
data are available for election forecasting: the results of previous elections,
a multitude of pre-election polls, and predictors such as measures of national
and statewide economic performance. How accurate are different forecasts? We
estimate predictive uncertainty via analysis of data collected from past elections
(actual outcomes, pre-election polls, and model estimates). With these estimated
uncertainties, we use Bayesian inference to integrate the various sources of
data to form posterior distributions for the state and national two-party
Democratic vote shares for the 2008 election. Our key idea is to separately
forecast the national popular vote shares and the relative positions of the
states.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10">Once again, there will be no
workshop this Wednesday, but our first meeting will be on Feb 4<sup>th</sup>.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10">Hope to see thenó</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10">Cheers</span></p>

<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:CMR10;mso-fareast-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;
mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">Justin Grimmer</span><br>