"The importance of statistical methodology for analyzing data from field
experimentation: Evaluating voter mobilization strategies" by Kosuke Imai
(Government, Harvard University)
The first presentation of the Research Workshop in Applied Statistics
will be held on Wednesday 9/25 at noon, CBRSS Rm. 22. Lunch will be
served. The paper may be accessed at:
http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/fall02/
Abstract:
Field experimentation is making its way back into the toolkit of political
scientists. Gerber and Green have led this important methodological
development that is likely to improve causal inferences in political
science research. However, they believe that field experiments only
require "rudimentary data analysis." Countering this claim, I use Gerber
and Green's voter mobilization data (2000) to show that statistical
methods are essential to address complications that invariably arise in
field experiments. I demonstrate how incomplete randomization of treatment
assignment led to the authors' puzzling finding that get-out-the-vote
calls discourage voters from going to the polls, reducing turnout by 5
percent. An application of matching, which is more appropriate given the
incomplete randomization, reveals that telephone canvassing increases
turnout by about 5 percent. My analysis also finds that mail canvassing is
a signficant cost-effective alternative, and that appeals related to civic
engagement are more effective than the original analysis indicated.
Contact: corr(a)fas.harvard.edu
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Research Workshop in Applied Statistics
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Jasjeet Sekhon (Government)
Garrett FitzMaurice (School of Public Health)
Lee Fleming (Business School)
Gary King (Government)
Donald Rubin (Statistics)
Christopher Winship (Sociology)
The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate
students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work
in progress and exchange ideas. It is intended as a tour of Harvard's
statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in
different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine,
political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology and
statistics. The topics of papers presented in previous years included
missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample selection,
and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and student
participants in the workshop present their current projects, and guest
speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop provides an
excellent opportunity for informal interaction between graduate
students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course credit is
available for students as Government 3009. Lunch is provided.
If you are interested, please be sure to attend our first meeting on
Wednesday, September 18th at noon, in Room 22, Center for Basic Research
in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is the yellow building
across the street from William James Hall). Contact information
and previous presentations may be found at the course web site:
http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/
To join the gov3009 mailing list, send e-mail to
gov3009-l-request(a)fas.harvard.edu with the following text message:
subscribe
end
Questions? Please contact the workshop coordinator, Anders Corr, at
corr(a)fas.harvard.edu
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