gov3009-l October 2002

gov3009-l@lists.fas.harvard.edu

2 participants
4 discussions

Black-White Differences in the Causal Effect of Expectations on Attainment

by Anders Schwartz Corr

Methodologist as Arbitrator: Five Models for Black-White Differences in the Causal Effect of Expectations on Attainment. Professor Stephen L. Morgan (Sociology, Cornell University) Wednesday October 30 at noon Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences 34 Kirkland Street, Room 22 Lunch will be served. Abstract: When progress in applied research slows because opposing coalitions of investigators privilege their favored models, methodologists can contribute by addressing a tractable unresolved question that is relevant to all competing positions. In this article the literature on educational attainment is addressed broadly by focusing on alternative positions on the need to model students' own beliefs and more narrowly by attempting to answer a classic question that emerged in debates over the power of status attainment approaches: Why is the relationship between educational expectations and subsequent educational attainment weaker for blacks than for whites? Analyzing the High School & Beyond data, five complementary models of the causal effect of expectations on attainment are offered: a traditional path-model, an average effects instrumental variable model, a counterfactual analysis of bounds, a rational expectations forecasting model, and a panel data model of updated expectations. The general methodological goal is to demonstrate how multi-model research can be pursued: After delineating the motivating assumptions of alternative theoretical positions and the explanations that they sustain, one then simultaneously estimates a wide range of plausible models, derives alternative permissible conclusions, and specifies the implied research program that must be mounted to choose from among the plausible conclusions. The paper may be accessed at: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/handouts/methodologistoct2002.p… The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss statistical innovations and applications in the social sciences. For more information or to receive workshop announcements every week, contact corr(a)fas.harvard.edu.

21 years, 6 months

Randomness and Coincidences: Reconciling Intuition and Probability Theory

by Anders Schwartz Corr

Randomness and Coincidences: Reconciling Intuition and Probability Theory Presentation by Tom Griffiths (Stanford University, Psychology Department). Coauthored by Joshua Tennenbaum (Stanford University, Psychology Department). Wednesday October 23 at noon Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences 34 Kirkland Street, Room 22 Lunch will be served. Abstract: People are notoriously bad at reasoning about chance. Our intuitions about randomness and coincidences seem to be inconsistent with the normative structure of statistics: events that are equally likely to arise by chance differ in their subjective randomness, and we consistently underestimate the probability of coincidences. I will argue that we can understand why these apparent errors arise by focusing on the evidence observations provide about the processes that generated them rather than their probability of occurring by chance. As part of this argument, I will present a simple Bayesian framework that gives predictions about both the extent to which a set of events will seem random, and the strength of coincidences. This framework accurately predicts behavior in a variety of contexts, suggesting that statistics might yet contribute to understanding our intuitions about chance. The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss statistical innovations and applications in the social sciences. For more information, contact corr(a)fas.harvard.edu. The paper may be accessed at: http://www-psych.stanford.edu/~gruffydd/papers/random.pdf The presenter's email is: gruffydd(a)psych.stanford.edu

21 years, 6 months

Applied Statistics Seminar Announcement

by Jasjeet Singh Sekhon

"Geography, Power, and the Size of Nations: An Agent-Based Model of the International System" Presentation by Anders Corr (Harvard University, Government Department) Wednesday October 16 at noon Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences 34 Kirkland Street, Room 22 Lunch will be served. The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss statistical innovations and applications in the social sciences. For more information, contact corr(a)fas.harvard.edu. Abstract: Power discrepancy is an observed characteristic of the international system. Lars-Erik Cederman's agent-based computer model, GeoSim, simulates the interaction of states in an international system, but produces equilibria in which power is distributed homogenously over system members (Cederman 2002). Alesina and Spolaore (forthcoming) likewise model changes in the size of nations without accounting for equilibria in which small and large states coexist. This study enriches Cederman's model by adding geography, thereby supplying a missing link in both literatures. As expected, geography yields a long-run distribution of power consistent with the empirical discrepancy between states, including the simultaneous existence of small and hegemonic polities. The paper may be accessed at: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/handouts/geosimgeog8.pdf

21 years, 6 months

Sequential Decision Strategies and Structural Nested Methods

by Anders Schwartz Corr

``Estimation of Optimal Treatment or Sequential Decision Strategies from Non-Experimental Data Using Structural Nested Models" Presentation by Professor James Robins (Harvard University, School of Public Health) Wednesday October 9 at noon Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences 34 Kirkland Street, Room 22 Lunch will be served. The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss statistical innovations and applications in the social sciences. For more information, contact corr(a)fas.harvard.edu. This week's paper is not available prior to the presentation.

21 years, 6 months

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gov3009-l October 2002