gov3009-l December 2003

gov3009-l@lists.fas.harvard.edu

1 participants
4 discussions

Applied Stats: Paper available (Daniel Ho, Wed@noon)

by adiamond＠fas.harvard.edu

Dan and Kosuke's paper "Shaken, Not Stirred: Evidence on Ballot Order Effects from the California Alphabet Lottery, 1982 - 2002" is available on-line at http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~deho/research/alphabet Theirs is the last of this semester's presentations. See you on Wednesday, Alexis ****************************************** The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work in progress and exchange ideas. It is intended as a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine, political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology and statistics. The topics of papers presented in previous years included missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample selection, and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and student participants in the workshop present their current projects, and guest speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop provides an excellent opportunity for informal interaction between graduate students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course credit is available for students as either an upper-level Government or Sociology class. Lunch is provided. If you are interested, note that all events are held at noon, in Room 22, Center for Basic Research in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is the yellow building across the street from William James Hall). Contact information and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ To join the gov3009 mailing list, send e-mail to gov3009-l-request(a)fas.harvard.edu with the following text message: subscribe end

20 years, 4 months

Applied Stats Wkshop: Daniel Ho this Wed@noon

by adiamond＠fas.harvard.edu

*************************************** Research Workshop in Applied Statistics *************************************** Please join us this Wednesday @ noon at CBRSS, the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences, 34 Kirkland St., Rm 22, for a presentation by Daniel E. Ho: "Shaken, Not Stirred: Evidence on Ballot Order Effects from the California Alphabet Lottery, 1982 - 2002" (coauthored with Kosuke Imai) Abstract We answer the longstanding question of whether the name order of candidates on ballots affects election outcomes by analyzing a rare natural experiment. Since 1975, California law has mandated randomizing the ballot order for statewide offices with a lottery, wherein the letters of the alphabet would be "shaken vigorously" in a container. Previous studies, relying overwhelmingly on non-randomized data, have reached no consensus on whether ballot order effects even exist. Our analysis of statewide elections from 1982 to 2002 reveals that in general elections ballot order significantly impacts minor party candidates, while having inconclusive effects on major party candidates. In primaries, however, being listed first benefits all parties. Major party candidates generally gain one to three percentage points, while minor party candidates may double their vote shares. In both general and primary elections, we find the largest effect for nonpartisan races where candidates in first position gain three percentage points. As always, lunch will be provided. Contact information, the current schedule, and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ ****************************************** The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work in progress and exchange ideas. It is intended as a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine, political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology and statistics. The topics of papers presented in previous years included missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample selection, and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and student participants in the workshop present their current projects, and guest speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop provides an excellent opportunity for informal interaction between graduate students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course credit is available for students as either an upper-level Government or Sociology class. Lunch is provided. If you are interested, note that all events are held at noon, in Room 22, Center for Basic Research in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is the yellow building across the street from William James Hall). Contact information and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ To join the gov3009 mailing list, send e-mail to gov3009-l-request(a)fas.harvard.edu with the following text message: subscribe end

20 years, 4 months

paper available: Chris Winship this Wed@noon

by adiamond＠fas.harvard.edu

Chris Winship's paper is available at http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/Calendar/winship.pdf *************************************** Research Workshop in Applied Statistics *************************************** Please join us this Wednesday @ noon at CBRSS, the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences, 34 Kirkland Street, Rm 22, for a presentation by Professor Christopher Winship. His talk is titled "A General Strategy for the Identification of Age, Period, Cohort Models: A Mechanism Based Approach" (coauthored with David Harding) *ABSTRACT* (Abridged) To date, the suggested strategy for identification of the APC model has been to specify some set of restrictions on the effects of Age, Period, and Cohort that allow the model to be identified. Generally, this is done by either restricting a set of coefficients to be equal or by requiring the effect of a variable to be proportional to some other variable... We suggest that it is meaningful to talk about causal effects in APC models if one can specify the mechanisms that are involved and these mechanisms are manipulable, which typically will be the case... This paper offers an alternative approach to the problem of identification. The core of the estimation strategy is to specify the mechanisms through which the variables of interest are supposed to work. In contrast to previous research that has focused on identification through restrictions, our method involves identification by augmenting ones model to include the variables that specify the mechanisms by which the variables of interest are assumed to affect the outcome. Our approach allows for a much broader set of identification strategies than has typically been considered in the literature. Also, in certain circumstances, different model specification tests are possible. Most importantly, our approach demonstrates the importance of theory for the identification of APC models, particularly theory as the specification of the mechanisms by which different processes are assumed to work. We illustrate the utility of our approach by developing an APC model for political alienation. As always, lunch will be provided. Contact information, the current schedule, and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ ****************************************** The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work in progress and exchange ideas. It is intended as a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine, political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology and statistics. The topics of papers presented in previous years included missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample selection, and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and student participants in the workshop present their current projects, and guest speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop provides an excellent opportunity for informal interaction between graduate students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course credit is available for students as either an upper-level Government or Sociology class. Lunch is provided. If you are interested, note that all events are held at noon, in Room 22, Center for Basic Research in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is the yellow building across the street from William James Hall). Contact information and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ To join the gov3009 mailing list, send e-mail to gov3009-l-request(a)fas.harvard.edu with the following text message: subscribe end ----- End forwarded message -----

20 years, 4 months

Applied Stats Wkshop: Chris Winship this Wed@noon

by adiamond＠fas.harvard.edu

*************************************** Research Workshop in Applied Statistics *************************************** Please join us this Wednesday @ noon at CBRSS, the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences, 34 Kirkland Street, Rm 22, for a presentation by Professor Christopher Winship. His talk is titled "A General Strategy for the Identification of Age, Period, Cohort Models: A Mechanism Based Approach" (coauthored with David Harding) *ABSTRACT* (Abridged) To date, the suggested strategy for identification of the APC model has been to specify some set of restrictions on the effects of Age, Period, and Cohort that allow the model to be identified. Generally, this is done by either restricting a set of coefficients to be equal or by requiring the effect of a variable to be proportional to some other variable... We suggest that it is meaningful to talk about causal effects in APC models if one can specify the mechanisms that are involved and these mechanisms are manipulable, which typically will be the case... This paper offers an alternative approach to the problem of identification. The core of the estimation strategy is to specify the mechanisms through which the variables of interest are supposed to work. In contrast to previous research that has focused on identification through restrictions, our method involves identification by augmenting ones model to include the variables that specify the mechanisms by which the variables of interest are assumed to affect the outcome. Our approach allows for a much broader set of identification strategies than has typically been considered in the literature. Also, in certain circumstances, different model specification tests are possible. Most importantly, our approach demonstrates the importance of theory for the identification of APC models, particularly theory as the specification of the mechanisms by which different processes are assumed to work. We illustrate the utility of our approach by developing an APC model for political alienation. As always, lunch will be provided. Contact information, the current schedule, and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ ****************************************** The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work in progress and exchange ideas. It is intended as a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine, political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology and statistics. The topics of papers presented in previous years included missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample selection, and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and student participants in the workshop present their current projects, and guest speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop provides an excellent opportunity for informal interaction between graduate students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course credit is available for students as either an upper-level Government or Sociology class. Lunch is provided. If you are interested, note that all events are held at noon, in Room 22, Center for Basic Research in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is the yellow building across the street from William James Hall). Contact information and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ To join the gov3009 mailing list, send e-mail to gov3009-l-request(a)fas.harvard.edu with the following text message: subscribe end

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gov3009-l December 2003