gov3009-l September 2021

gov3009-l@lists.fas.harvard.edu

2 participants
6 discussions

Gov 3009 Applied Statistics Workshop (9/29) -- Cory McCartan

by Shin, Sooahn

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday, September 29*, where Cory McCartan <https://corymccartan.github.io> (Harvard University) presents "Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods." This is joint work with Jacob Brown (Harvard University) and Kosuke Imai (Harvard University). *Abstract* More granular geographical data has allowed social scientists to probe how residential neighborhoods are formed and how they influence attitudes and behavior. To facilitate such studies, we develop a survey tool that allows respondents to draw their neighborhoods on a map. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that can be used to analyze which factors shape their neighborhoods. We have conducted a survey of registered voters in Miami, New York City, and Phoenix, and find that across these cities, voters are more likely to include same-race and co-partisan census blocks into their neighborhoods. We also show that our model provides more accurate out-of-sample predictions than the standard distance-based measures of neighborhoods. *Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354 (See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions). *When:* Wednesday, September 29 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm. (Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm for the presentations.) *Zoom link*: https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09 (For the participants who cannot join the session physically.) *Schedule of the workshop*: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009 Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday! Best, Sooahn

2 years, 7 months

Gov 3009 Applied Statistics Workshop (9/22) -- Sherry Zaks

by Shin, Sooahn

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday, September 22*, where Sherry Zaks <https://www.sherryzaks.com/> (University of Southern California) presents "Do we know it when we see it? Conceptualization and Cascading Bias in Identifying "Rebel-to-Party Transition"." *Abstract* Studies on rebel-to-party transition suggest that incorporating former-rebels into post-conflict politics creates a tenable path toward stability and democratization. Notwithstanding the salience of these results, the rebel-to-party literature is racked with an unacknowledged conceptual tension that simultaneously demands---and paves the way for---reconciliation. On the one hand, scholars exhibit remarkable convergence on both the core meaning and stakes of rebel-to-party transition. On the other hand, the literature reveals nearly as many different definitions of ``rebel-to-party transition" as there are studies of it. Conceptual imprecision and discord together have an analytic ripple effect---compromising the validity of the concept, the quality of the measure, the inclusion criteria of datasets, and the results of analyses. To address these limitations, I propose a novel conceptualization of ``rebel-to-party transition" that distinguishes among (failed) political aspirants, nominal participants, and seated participants. This framework places critical scope conditions on ``failure," adds nuance to ``success," and explicitly distinguishes between ``transition" and ``transformation". I derive frameworks for data collection and measurement and run a series of replication analyses to both test the implications of existing disparities and demonstrate the utility of the new framework. *Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354 (See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions). *When:* Wednesday, September 22 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm. (Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm for the presentations.) *Zoom link*: https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09 (For the participants who cannot join the session physically.) *Schedule of the workshop*: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009 Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday! Best, Sooahn

2 years, 7 months

Gov 3009 Applied Statistics Workshop (9/15) -- Christopher Kenny

by Shin, Sooahn

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday, September 15*, where Christopher Kenny <https://www.christophertkenny.com> (Harvard University) presents "The Use of Differential Privacy for Census Data and its Impact on Redistricting: The Case of the 2020 U.S. Census." This is joint work with Shiro Kuriwaki (Stanford University), Cory McCartan (Harvard University), Evan Rosenman (Harvard Data Science Initiative), Tyler Simko (Harvard University), and Kosuke Imai (Harvard University). **Abstract** Census statistics play a key role in public policy decisions and social science research. Yet given the risk of revealing individual information, many statistical agencies are considering disclosure control methods based on differential privacy, which add noise to tabulated data. Unlike other applications of differential privacy, however, census statistics must be post-processed after noise injection to be usable. We study the impact of the US Census Bureau's latest Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) on a major application of census statistics---the redrawing of electoral districts. We find that the DAS systematically undercounts the population in mixed-race and mixed-partisan precincts, yielding unpredictable racial and partisan biases. While the DAS leads to a likely violation of the "One Person, One Vote" standard as currently interpreted, it does not prevent accurate predictions of an individual's race and ethnicity. Our findings underscore the difficulty of balancing accuracy and respondent privacy in the Census. **Where:** CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354 (See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions). **When:** Wednesday, September 15 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm. (Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm for the presentations.) **Zoom link**: https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09 (For the participants who cannot join the session physically.) **Schedule of the workshop**: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009 Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday! Best, Sooahn

2 years, 7 months

Gov 3009 Applied Statistics Workshop (9/8) -- Welcoming Lunch Tomorrow

by Shin, Sooahn

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, I am writing to invite you to join the first meeting of the Applied Statistics Workshop tomorrow (September 8th) at noon. We will be hosting a Welcoming Lunch where participants will be able to meet and greet for this first meeting. As a reminder, we will be offering boxed lunches for the participants who responded to our previous survey. Please grab your lunch from CGIS K354 around noon and meet us in the CGIS backyard to eat and chat. Please note that the regular presentations will start the next week. From next week, boxed lunches will be available for pick-up before the meeting (11:30-11:45 am), and a zoom link will be shared in advance for those who cannot join us physically. Looking forward to our first meeting tomorrow! Best, Sooahn

2 years, 7 months

Applied Statistics Workshop Gov3009: Important Information

by Shin, Sooahn

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Welcome to the Fall 2021 Applied Statistics Workshop<https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009> The faculty sponsors -- Professors Matthew Blackwell, Kosuke Imai, Gary King, James Robins, Tyler VanderWeele, Christopher Winship, and Xiang Zhou -- and I are excited to see you all back in person. This email contains important information for the logistics, so please take a moment to read it carefully. The Applied Statistics Workshop will continue to meet weekly on Wednesdays from 12:10 pm in CGIS K354. We hope to see you in person during the meeting; however, in case you cannot join us physically for various reasons, please join us remotely by using the recurring Zoom link, which we will share beforehand. We would also like to ask for your answer to this short survey<https://forms.gle/sTe8DYy1WsrFH5di6> concerning workshop-provided lunch. For this Fall semester, we will be offering bagged lunches before the start of the meeting (pick-up available from 11:30-11:45 am). If you are planning to attend the meeting and are interested in bagged lunches, please complete the survey by tomorrow (September 4). Timely responses would enable us to get a rough estimate of food provision for our first meeting. We will share the full schedule and a recurring Zoom link soon. Look forward to meeting you soon! Best, Sooahn

2 years, 7 months

Applied Statistics Workshop Gov3009: Important Information

by Sooahn Shin

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Welcome to the Fall 2021 Applied Statistics Workshop <https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009>! The faculty coordinators, Professors Gary King and Matthew Blackwell, and I are excited to see you all back in person. This email contains important information for the logistics, so please take a moment to read it carefully. The Applied Statistics Workshop will continue to meet weekly on Wednesdays from 12:10 pm in CGIS K354. We hope to see you in person during the meeting; however, in case you cannot join us physically for various reasons, please join us remotely by using the recurring Zoom link, which we will share beforehand. We would also like to ask for your answer to this short survey <https://forms.gle/sTe8DYy1WsrFH5di6> concerning workshop-provided lunch. For this Fall semester, we will be offering bagged lunches before the start of the meeting (pick-up available from 11:30-11:45 am). If you are planning to attend the meeting and are interested in bagged lunches, please complete the survey by tomorrow (September 4). Timely responses would enable us to get a rough estimate of food provision for our first meeting. We will share the full schedule and a recurring Zoom link soon. Look forward to meeting you soon! Best, Sooahn

2 years, 7 months

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

gov3009-l September 2021