Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday,
September 22*, where Sherry Zaks <https://www.sherryzaks.com/> (University
of Southern California) presents "Do we know it when we see it?
Conceptualization and Cascading Bias in Identifying "Rebel-to-Party
Transition"."
*Abstract*
Studies on rebel-to-party transition suggest that incorporating
former-rebels into post-conflict politics creates a tenable path toward
stability and democratization. Notwithstanding the salience of these
results, the rebel-to-party literature is racked with an unacknowledged
conceptual tension that simultaneously demands---and paves the way
for---reconciliation. On the one hand, scholars exhibit remarkable
convergence on both the core meaning and stakes of rebel-to-party
transition. On the other hand, the literature reveals nearly as many
different definitions of ``rebel-to-party transition" as there are studies
of it. Conceptual imprecision and discord together have an analytic ripple
effect---compromising the validity of the concept, the quality of the
measure, the inclusion criteria of datasets, and the results of analyses.
To address these limitations, I propose a novel conceptualization of
``rebel-to-party transition" that distinguishes among (failed) political
aspirants, nominal participants, and seated participants. This framework
places critical scope conditions on ``failure," adds nuance to ``success,"
and explicitly distinguishes between ``transition" and ``transformation". I
derive frameworks for data collection and measurement and run a series of
replication analyses to both test the implications of existing disparities
and demonstrate the utility of the new framework.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354
(See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When:* Wednesday, September 22 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
(Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for
the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the
first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may
also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm
for the presentations.)
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
(For the participants who cannot join the session physically.)
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn