gov3009-l February 2013

gov3009-l@lists.fas.harvard.edu

1 participants
4 discussions

Applied Statistics Workshop: Dariush Mozaffarian on Wed., Feb. 27

by Konstantin Kashin

Dear all, We hope you can join us this Wednesday, February 27, 2013 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354 for the Applied Statistics Workshop. Dariush Mozaffarian <http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/dariush-mozaffarian/>, Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, will give a presentation entitled "Estimating the Global Impact of Poor Dietary Habits on Chronic Diseases". A light lunch will be served at 12 pm and the talk will begin at 12.15. Abstract: > Nearly every nation in the world is undergoing rapid epidemiologic > transition toward noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs) including > cardiovascular disease (CVD), obesity, diabetes, and cancers. Numerous > organizations including the United Nations, World Health Organization, US > Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other national and > international organizations have emphasized the importance of dietary > habits as a key risk factor for NCDs. Yet, the burdens of suboptimal > dietary habits on NCDs globally, as well as heterogeneity in these burdens > by region, country, age, and sex, are not established. Quantification of > these burdens has been limited by inadequate or absent data on dietary > habits in many nations, not only for each country as a whole, but also for > age- and sex-specific strata. As part of our work in the 2010 Global Burden > of Diseases Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Group, we systematically > identified and obtained data on national and subnational individual-level > surveys of dietary consumption worldwide; and used a Bayesian hierarchical > model to evaluate and account for differences in comparability, assessment > methods, representativeness, and missingness. We also quantified effects of > dietary habits on NCDs, including differences by age, in new meta-analyses. > We compiled additional data to quantify the alternative optimal > distribution of key dietary risk factors, and the numbers of cause-specific > deaths by country, age, and sex. Using this compilation of global data, we > used comparative risk assessment to quantify the impacts of current dietary > habits on NCDs in each nation around the world. The case of sugar-sweetened > beverages (SSBs) and CVD, adiposity-related cancers, and diabetes will be > presented as an example of our newest findings. An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at http://events.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208. Best, Konstantin -- Konstantin Kashin Ph.D. Candidate in Government Harvard University Mobile: 978-844-0538 E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>

11 years, 2 months

Applied Statistics Workshop: Fernando Martel Garcia on Wed., Feb. 20

by Konstantin Kashin

Dear all, Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this Wednesday, February 20 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Fernando Martel Garcia <http://www.iq.harvard.edu/people/fernando-martel-garcia>, a Research Fellow at the Harvard School of Public Health, will give a presentation entitled "When and Why is Attrition a Problem in Randomized Controlled Experiments and How to Diagnose It". As always, a light lunch will be provided. Abstract: > Attrition is the Achilles' Heel of the randomized experiment: it is fairly > common, and it can unravel the benefits of randomization. This study > considers when and why attrition is a problem, and how it can be diagnosed. > The extant literature remains ambiguous because it relies on the language > of probability, whereas problematic attrition depends on the underlying > causal relations. This ambiguity arises because causation implies > correlation but not vice versa. Using the structural causal language of > directed acyclic graphs I show attrition is a problem when it is an active > collider between the treatment and the outcome, or when the latent outcome > is a mediator between the treatment and the attrition. Moreover, whether > observed outcomes are representative of all outcomes, or only comparable > across experimental arms, depends on two d-separation conditions. One of > these is directly testable from the data. An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at http://events.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208. Best, Konstantin -- Konstantin Kashin Ph.D. Candidate in Government Harvard University Mobile: 978-844-0538 E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>

11 years, 2 months

Applied Statistics Workshop: Daniel Carpenter on Wed., Feb. 13

by Konstantin Kashin

Dear all, Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this Wednesday, February 13 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Daniel Carpenter <http://www.gov.harvard.edu/people/faculty/daniel-carpenter>, the Allie S. Freed Professor of Government from the Department of Government at Harvard University, will give a presentation entitled "R&D Abandonment in Regulatory Equilibrium: Evidence from Asset Price Shocks Induced by FDA Decisions". As always, a light lunch will be provided. Abstract: > Observers of approval regulation regimes such as FDA drug review have long > proposed that they cause private companies to avoid developing new products > that would otherwise have been marketed. The welfare conclusions and policy > recommendations vary, but the causal claim is common. Yet most such claims > suffer from the problem of endogeneity and non-random assignment, such that > the necessary counterfactual cannot be sustained. If a regulatory decision > occurs and drug projects are discontinued or delayed, the analyst cannot > usually infer whether it was a change in regulation or something else that > caused the project abandonment. Using a rich dataset on the development of > over 15,000 pharmaceutical investment projects from 1989 to 2003, we > examine responses in development projects to "bad news" regulatory > announcements weighted by the asset price shocks in a general equilibrium > financial market. Using a Lévy process model of asset price evolution, we > demonstrate that the abrupt changes in sponsor asset prices upon the > announcement of adverse regulatory news are plausibly non-anticipable for > all participants but the regulator. Specifically, for the development > projects of companies other than the sponsor affected, they are > quasi-random, conditional on all information known on the day before the > announcement. This assumption is supported by analysis of data, and then > used to identify a model of regulatory effects upon drug development. The > results suggest robust effects of induced project abandonment by regulatory > decisions; a ten percent (negative) shock to the sponsor's asset price in > response to adverse FDA news is sufficient to induce a three to four > percent increase in the hazard rate of drug project discontinuation for all > other firms' projects in the months following the news. While some > immediate responses to adverse regulatory news are witnessed, most response > takes place in a six month period following the event. Effects are larger > for bad news from advisory committee decisions and FDA requests for > additional data, and are negative (development-facilitating) for surprise > other-company abandonments where FDA factors are implicit. The results are > generally supportive of dominant theoretical models of endogenous approval > regulation (Carpenter and Ting 2007), but policy implications are unclear > and depend upon the potential health and welfare effects of the therapies > foregone. An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at http://events.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208. Best, Konstantin -- Konstantin Kashin Ph.D. Candidate in Government Harvard University Mobile: 978-844-0538 E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>

11 years, 2 months

Applied Statistics Workshop: Laura Hatfield on Wed., Feb. 6

by Konstantin Kashin

Dear all, We hope you can join us this Wednesday, February 6, 2013 from 12-1.30 in in CGIS Knafel Room 354 for the Applied Statistics Workshop. Laura Hatfield<http://www.hcp.med.harvard.edu/node/2930>, an Assistant Professor from the Department of Health Care Policy at the Harvard Medical School, will give a presentation entitled "Statistical properties and health policy applications of microsimulation". A light lunch will be served at 12 pm and the talk will begin at 12.15. Abstract: > When forecasting the impact of novel policy interventions, simulations are > standard. If the behavior of the entire system is complex and not well > identified by existing data, simulations that focus on the behavior of > smaller units, such as individuals, may be preferred. So-called > microsimulation models can incorporate complications such as clustering, > nonlinearity, non-standard distributions, and time-dependence. This talk > will present an overview of microsimulation techniques, with a focus on > statistical features and dynamic (vs static) simulation, especially in > health policy settings. I will also describe the current development of a > model of health insurance coverage and health care spending of Medicare > beneficiaries. An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at http://events.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208. Best, Konstantin -- Konstantin Kashin Ph.D. Candidate in Government Harvard University Mobile: 978-844-0538 E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>

11 years, 2 months

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gov3009-l February 2013