Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our last meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday,
April 27*, where Tasha Fairfield
<https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/people/tasha-fairfield>
(London
School of Economics and Political Science) presents "Recasting the Debate
on COVID-19 Origins in Bayesian Terms," a joint work with Andrew Charman
(Dept. of Physics, UC Berkeley).
Please note that this meeting will be *entirely on Zoom
<https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09>*
.
*Abstract*
The debate on covid-19 origins has been politically fraught. Yet setting
aside conspiracy theories and the most implausible of the lab-leak
hypotheses, there is significant disagreement among qualified experts.
Some are adamant that the case should be considered closed in favor of
zoonosis, while others view the evidence as weak, even if they concede that
prior knowledge about previous epidemics favors zoonosis, and a few
maintain that some sort of laboratory leak is a firm possibility.
This project applies the methodology developed in *Social Inquiry and
Bayesian Inference *(CUP 2022) to reassess the debate. We apply Bayesian
reasoning to evaluate the inferential weight of available evidence in favor
of zoonosis vs. lab-leak hypotheses, drawing on published scientific
research, journalistic sources, and interviews with scientists and China
experts. The analysis highlights the flexibility of Bayesian reasoning—this
approach can be used to evaluate any kind of evidence, quantitative or
qualitative, including genetic data, epidemiological data, and information
from interviews and observational fieldwork.
In addition to clarifying the debate by separating prior odds, informed by
what we know from previous epidemics, from the weight of evidence
pertaining directly to SARS-CoV-2, the goals include evaluating to what
extent a Bayesian framework can help improve reasoning when evidence is
limited, communicate degrees of uncertainty more effectively, and
illuminate points of agreement or disagreement among experts on questions
with significant public policy implications.
The table of contents and first chapter of our book are available at:
https://tashafairfield.wixsite.com/home/bayes-book
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
*When:* Wednesday, April 27 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn
Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday, Apr
20*, where Katharina Fellnhofer
<https://sociology.fas.harvard.edu/people/katharina-fellnhofer> (Harvard
University) presents "A framework for measuring intuitive decision making
in real-world contexts."
*Abstract*
Intuition refers to the ability to use nonconscious information for
conscious decision making. The nonconscious element has predominantly been
measured by its speed of operation and ease of application. Only a few
scholarly attempts at behavioral measuring take nonconsciousness into
account, and they use situations that do not represent the real world,
which limits generalization. In my talk, I will present the results of my
intuition measurement using a within-subject design with real investment
opportunities that employ hidden images as nonconscious information to
trigger intuition. My experiments were conducted entirely online from July
to September 2021 in Europe and the United States. I will provide an
overview of my current Bayesian analysis of 62,721 real-world investment
decisions made by 657 subjects representing similar proportions of
financiers, entrepreneurs, and non-entrepreneurs, all recruited via
Prolific. I will also discuss additional ideas that could enrich our
understanding of how to measure skills at using nonconscious information
for conscious, real-world decision making. As such, my presentation will
focus on my existing analytical results, my intentions for future analysis,
and my plans for a new project, with the dual aims of sharing what my team
and I have learned so far and receiving valuable early-stage suggestions
for improvement and feedback from Applied Statistics Workshop participants.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354
(See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When:* Wednesday, Apr 20 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
(The participants can now choose to eat the bagged lunch inside the room
before the presentation starts. You may also pick up the lunch from 11:30
am and eat outside if you wish.)
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
(For the participants who cannot join the session physically.)
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn
Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday, Apr
13*, where Deirdre Bloome
<https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/deirdre-bloome> (Harvard University)
presents "Rising Class Crystallization? Trends in Multidimensional Class
Inequality across Racialized/Ethnic Groups."
*Abstract*
In recent decades, U.S. income and wealth inequality grew, educational
attainment rose, and occupational structures shifted. Because these
dimensions of social class are intertwined---with higher education often
generating higher income, wealth, and occupational prestige---rising
inequality in one may have pushed some people toward the tops of multiple
hierarchies, and others toward the bottoms of multiple hierarchies
(polarizing people in the multidimensional space of class inequality). Are
people occupying increasingl*y consistent positions across multiple class
hierarchies*? And has this class *crystallization* trended similarly for
Black, White, and Hispanic people, despite their different opportunities,
constraints, and initial class positions? We address these questions using
data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1984--2019. To do so, we
introduce nonparametric and parametric methods for studying
multidimensional inequality, including models that jointly parameterize the
mean and covariance matrix of a multivariate outcome as functions of
covariates.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354
(See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When:* Wednesday, Apr 13 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
(The participants can now choose to eat the bagged lunch inside the room
before the presentation starts. You may also pick up the lunch from 11:30
am and eat outside if you wish.)
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
(For the participants who cannot join the session physically.)
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn
Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday, Apr
6*, where Adeline Lo <https://www.loadeline.com> (University of
Wisconsin-Madison) presents "Refugees in Modern Media."
*Abstract*
The effects of refugee migration permeates most aspects of a recipient
society, not least native inclusionary attitudes and behaviors towards
refugees. While recent research has emphasized measuring the extent to
which direct exposure to refugees affects inclusion, much less is known
about the more frequent type of refugee exposure natives experience:
exposure to refugees through media representation. This project establishes
key patterns to how much and in what ways modern media represents refugee
stories, how this has changed over time, and explores how major shifts in
the ways refugee stories have changed affect native inclusion using a
unique television corpus covering the universe of broadcasted news in
Germany throughout the period leading up to and following the globally
renowned ``Open Door'' announcement in the Syrian refugee crisis.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354
(See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When:* Wednesday, Apr 6 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
(Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for
the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the
first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may
also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm
for the presentations.)
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
(For the participants who cannot join the session physically.)
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn
