gov3009-l February 2008

gov3009-l@lists.fas.harvard.edu

1 participants
4 discussions

Harding on "A Bayesian Mixed Logit-Probit Model for Multinomial Choice"

by Justin Grimmer

Dear Applied Statistics Community, This Wednesday the Applied Statistics Workshop will welcome Matthew Harding, Dept. of Economics, Stanford University. Matthew will be presenting his research, "A Bayesian Mixed Logit-Probit Model for Multinomial Choice", a project that is joint with Jerry Hausman and Michael Burda. Here is an abstract for the presentation: In this paper we introduce a new flexible mixed model for multinomial discrete choice where the key individual- and alternative-specific parameters of interest are allowed to follow an assumption-free nonparametric density specification while other alternative-specific coefficients are assumed to be drawn from a multivariate normal distribution. A hierarchical specification of our model allows us to break down a complex data structure into a set of submodels with the desired features that are naturally assembled in the original system. We estimate the model using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique with a multivariate Dirichlet Process (DP) prior on the coefficients with nonparametrically estimated density. We bypass a problem of prior non-conjugacy by employing a "latent class" sampling algorithm for the DP prior. The model is applied to supermarket choices of a panel of Houston households whose shopping behavior was observed over a 24-month period in years 2004-2005. We estimate the nonparametric density of two key variables of interest: the price of a basket of goods based on scanner data, and driving distance to the supermarket based on their respective locations, calculated using GPS software. Supermarket dummies form the parametric part of our model. The workshop meets at 12 noon with a light lunch and presentations usually begin at 1215. Our workshop is located at 1737 Cambridge St, CGIS-Knafel, room N-354. Please contact me with any questions Justin Grimmer

16 years, 2 months

Fwd: Presentation this Wednesday

by Justin Grimmer

Dear Applied Statistics Community, This Wednesday, 2/20, the applied statistics workshop welcomes Jim Snyder, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Economics and Political Science at MIT. He will be presenting "The Wealth of Political Office in the US, 1840-1870" work that is joint with Pablo Querubin, Department of Economics, MIT. Jim provided the following abstract and the attached article: The second half of the 19th century was known as a corrupt era in U.S. politics. Using the censuses of 1850, 1860 and 1870, we find the wealth of all candidates running for the U.S. House of Representatives during the period 1840-1870. We use this data to estimate several quantities of interest, including: How wealthy were these candidates compared to others in the population at the time? How did the wealth accumulation of these candidates compare to others in the population? How did the wealth levels and accumulation vary by party? How did those candidates who won a congressional race by a close margin compare with those who lost by a close margin? This last quantity, which exploits a regression-discontinuity approach, provides a good estimate of the monetary ``rents'' to a congressional seat at that time. As always, the workshop will convene at 12 noon with a light lunch and the presentation will begin at 1215. We are located in CGIS-Knafel, 1737 Cambridge St, room N-354. Please Contact me with any questions Cheers Justin Grimmer

16 years, 2 months

Rubin on 'Direct and Indirect Effects'

by Justin Grimmer

Dear Applied Statistics Community, This Wednesday the applied statistics workshop presents Donald Rubin -- Department of Statistics, Harvard University – who will present, "Direct and Indirect Causal Effects: An unhelpful distinction?" Don has suggested the following papers provide a helpful background to his talk: 2003 - "Assumptions Allowing the Estimation of Direct Causal Effects: Discussion of `Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths Between Health and Socioeconomic Status' by Adams et al.'". Journal of Econometrics, 112, pp. 79-87. (With F. Mealli.) 2004 - "Direct and Indirect Causal Effects Via Potential Outcomes." The Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 31, pp. 161-170; 196-198, with discussion and reply "Causal Inference Using Potential Outcomes: Design, Modeling, Decisions." 2004 Fisher Lecture. The Journal of the American Statistical Association, 100, 469, pp. 322-331. The workshop meets at 12 noon in room N-354 CGIS-Knafel (1737 Cambridge St) with a light lunch, with presentations usually beginning at 1215. Please send along any comments or concerns Cheers Justin

16 years, 2 months

Quinn on 'Assessing the Political Positions of Media'

by Justin Grimmer

Dear Applied Statistics Community, Apologies for the late email this week—we've experienced some last minute scheduling changes. This week Kevin Quinn, Department of Government, will present 'Assessing Political Positions of Media' a project that is joint with Daniel Ho, Stanford Law School. Kevin provided the following abstract: Although central to understanding the role of the media, few quantitative measures of the political positions of media exist. We amass a new, large-scale dataset to shed light on this question. Collecting and classifying over 1500 editorials adopted by 25 major U.S. newspapers on 495 Supreme Court cases from 1994-2004, we apply an item response theoretic approach to place newspapers on a substantively meaningful and long validated scale of political preferences. Our results provide significant insights into the study of the media. We show that 18 of the 25 papers are more likely to the left of the median Justice for this period, but also considerable evidence that this may be an artifact of the liberalness of urban, elite, high circulation papers. Kevin also provided a link to the paper, which is available here: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~kquinn/papers/Ho_Quinn_unblind.pdf<http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekquinn/papers/Ho_Quinn_unblind.pdf> Our workshop will convene this Wednesday at 12 noon with a light lunch, with the presentation to start at 1215. We are located in CGIS-Knafel (1737 Cambridge St) Room N-354. Please Contact me with any questions, comments, or concerns Justin Grimmer

16 years, 2 months

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gov3009-l February 2008