Dear all,
Please join us for the final session of the Applied Statistics Workshop
(Gov 3009) this semester on Wednesday, April 25 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in
CGIS Knafel Room 354. Felix Elwert, Assistant Professor in the Department
of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, will give a
presentation entitled "Endogenous Selection". As always, a light lunch will
be provided.
Abstract:
> Selection bias is a central problem for causal inference in the social
> sciences. Quite how central a problem it is, however, is often obscured by
> ambiguous terminology, needlessly technical presentations, and narrow rules
> of thumb. This paper uses directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to advance a
> precise yet intuitive global definition of endogenous selection bias and
> argue its theoretical and practical centrality for causal inference. The
> paper clarifies the fundamental structural difference between confounding
> and endogenous selection, shows that nearly all non-parametric
> identification problems relate to either confounding or endogenous
> selection, and argues that the problem of endogenous selection is
> indifferent to timing. Perhaps most importantly, we illustrate the
> importance of endogenous selection bias with numerous and varied examples
> from empirical social research.
This is joint work with Chris Winship.
An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
Best,
Konstantin
--
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University
Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>
Dear all,
Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, April 18 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Omar
Wasow<http://www.omarwasow.com/>,
a Ph.D. candidate from the Department of Government and the Department of
African and African American Studies at Harvard University, will give a
presentation entitled "Violence and Voting: Did the 1960s Urban Riots
Reshape American Politics?". As always, a light lunch will be provided.
Abstract:
Between 1964 and 1971, more than 750 riots flared up in black neighborhoods
> across the United States. Scholarship on how the American polity respond to
> these violent protests is contested. Some scholars argue that urban riots
> produced a conservative ``backlash'' among white voters, while other
> scholars find little or no effect. Using a measure that incorporates the
> location, timing and severity of urban riots between 1964 and 1971, I
> examine whether increased exposure to urban riots is associated with
> decreased support for the Democratic party. In the 1964, 1968 and 1972
> presidential elections, I find a strong negative relationship between
> exposure to civil unrest and the county-level Democratic vote share. I find
> a similar negative relationship between exposure to riots and Democratic
> vote share in congressional elections between 1968 and 1972. Finally, I
> find that in counterfactual scenarios of fewer riots the Democratic
> presidential nominee, Hubert Humphrey, would have beaten the Republican
> nominee, Richard Nixon, in the 1968 election. As African Americans were
> strongly identified with the Democratic party in this time period, my
> results suggest that, in at least some contexts, political violence by a
> minority group may contribute to a backlash among segments of the mass
> electorate and encourage outcomes directly at odds with the preferences of
> the protestors.
An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
Best,
Konstantin
--
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University
Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>
Dear all,
Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, April 11 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Adam
Glynn, an Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Harvard
University, will give a presentation entitled "Using Post-Treatment
Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive
Selection Procedures in New Democracies". As always, a light lunch will be
provided.
Abstract:
> In this paper we propose an adjustment based on post-treatment variables
> for some standard estimators of the average treatment effect on the
> treated. Under relatively weak conditions, this adjusted estimator will
> provide an upper bound for the effect and in some cases lower bounds on
> p-values. Additionally, this approach does not place a restriction on the
> outcome variable and allows for multiple mechanisms by which the treatment
> has an effect on the outcome. We also demonstrate that this adjustment will
> reduce the estimated effect in a wide variety of circumstances, and
> therefore, when the assumptions for the adjusted estimator are preferable
> to the assumptions for the unadjusted estimator, the adjustment can be used
> as a robustness check. This method is illustrated with an assessment of the
> effects of using plurality rules for the first multi-party presidential
> elections in third wave of democracy in sub-Saharan Africa.
This is joint work with Nahomi Ichino.
An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
Best,
Konstantin
--
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University
Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>
Dear all,
Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, April 4 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Dany
Bahar<http://scholar.harvard.edu/dbaharc/content/dany-bahar-0>,
a Ph.D. Candidate in Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, will give
a presentation entitled "International Knowledge Diffusion and the
Comparative Advantage of Nations". As always, a light lunch will be
provided.
Abstract:
> In this paper we document that the probability that a product is added to
> a country's export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring
> country is a successful exporter of that same product. We interpret our
> result as evidence of international intra-industry knowledge diffusion. Our
> results are consistent with the overall consensus in the literature on
> technology spillovers: diffusion is stronger at shorter distances; is
> weaker for more knowledge-intensive products; and has become faster over
> time.
This is joint work with Ricardo Hausmann and Cesar Hidalgo.
An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
Best,
Konstantin
--
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University
Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu
Site: http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashin/>
