Dear all,
Please join us for the Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) this
Wednesday, April 11 from 12.00 - 1.30 pm in CGIS Knafel Room 354. Adam
Glynn, an Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Harvard
University, will give a presentation entitled "Using Post-Treatment
Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive
Selection Procedures in New Democracies". As always, a light lunch will be
provided.
Abstract:
In this paper we propose an adjustment based on
post-treatment variables
for some standard estimators of the average treatment effect on the
treated. Under relatively weak conditions, this adjusted estimator will
provide an upper bound for the effect and in some cases lower bounds on
p-values. Additionally, this approach does not place a restriction on the
outcome variable and allows for multiple mechanisms by which the treatment
has an effect on the outcome. We also demonstrate that this adjustment will
reduce the estimated effect in a wide variety of circumstances, and
therefore, when the assumptions for the adjusted estimator are preferable
to the assumptions for the unadjusted estimator, the adjustment can be used
as a robustness check. This method is illustrated with an assessment of the
effects of using plurality rules for the first multi-party presidential
elections in third wave of democracy in sub-Saharan Africa.
This is joint work with Nahomi Ichino.
An up-to-date schedule for the workshop is available at
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/events/node/1208.
Best,
Konstantin
--
Konstantin Kashin
Ph.D. Student in Government
Harvard University
Mobile: 978-844-0538
E-mail: kkashin(a)fas.harvard.edu
Site:
http://www.konstantinkashin.com/<http://people.fas.harvard.edu/%7Ekkashi…