Methodologist as Arbitrator: Five Models for Black-White Differences in the Causal Effect of Expectations on Attainment. Professor Stephen L. Morgan (Sociology, Cornell University) Wednesday October 30 at noon Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences 34 Kirkland Street, Room 22 Lunch will be served. Abstract: When progress in applied research slows because opposing coalitions of investigators privilege their favored models, methodologists can contribute by addressing a tractable unresolved question that is relevant to all competing positions. In this article the literature on educational attainment is addressed broadly by focusing on alternative positions on the need to model students' own beliefs and more narrowly by attempting to answer a classic question that emerged in debates over the power of status attainment approaches: Why is the relationship between educational expectations and subsequent educational attainment weaker for blacks than for whites? Analyzing the High School & Beyond data, five complementary models of the causal effect of expectations on attainment are offered: a traditional path-model, an average effects instrumental variable model, a counterfactual analysis of bounds, a rational expectations forecasting model, and a panel data model of updated expectations. The general methodological goal is to demonstrate how multi-model research can be pursued: After delineating the motivating assumptions of alternative theoretical positions and the explanations that they sustain, one then simultaneously estimates a wide range of plausible models, derives alternative permissible conclusions, and specifies the implied research program that must be mounted to choose from among the plausible conclusions. The paper may be accessed at: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/handouts/methodologistoct2002.p… The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss statistical innovations and applications in the social sciences. For more information or to receive workshop announcements every week, contact corr(a)fas.harvard.edu.