Hi all,
Our next meeting will be *Wednesday February 19*, where Asya Magazinnik
will present research* “What Do we Learn About Voter Preferences From
Conjoint Experiments?”*
*Abstract:* Political scientists frequently interpret the results of
conjoint experiments as reflective of voter preferences. In this paper we
show that the target esti- mand of conjoint experiments, the AMCE, is not
well-defined in these terms. Even with individually rational experimental
subjects, unbiased estimates of the AMCE can indicate the opposite of the
true preference of the majority. To show this, we characterize the
preference aggregation rule implied by AMCE and demonstrate its several
undesirable properties. With this result we provide a method for placing
sharp bounds on the proportion of experimental subjects with a strict
preference for a given candidate-feature. We provide a testable assumption
to show when the AMCE corresponds in sign with the majority preference.
Finally, we offer a structural interpretation of the AMCE and highlight
that the problem we describe persists even when a model of voting is
imposed.
The paper can be found here
<https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/kkocak/files/conjoint_draft.pdf>
.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354 (see this link
<https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When: *Wednesday, February 17 at 12noon - 1:30pm.
All are welcome and lunch will be provided.
Best,
Georgie
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