Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday,
November 10*, where Isaiah Andrews
<https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009> (Harvard
University) presents "Inference on Winners." This is joint work with Toru
Kitagawa (University College London) and Adam McCloskey (University of
Colorado). Please find the paper from this link
<https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/iandrews/files/inference_on_winners.pdf>.
*Abstract*
Many empirical questions concern target parameters selected through
optimization. For example, researchers may be interested in the
effectiveness of the best policy found in a randomized trial, or the
best-performing investment strategy based on historical data. Such settings
give rise to a winner’s curse, where conventional estimates are biased and
conventional confidence intervals are unreliable. This paper develops
optimal confidence intervals and median-unbiased estimators that are valid
conditional on the target selected and so overcome this winner’s curse. If
one requires validity only on average over targets that might have been
selected, we develop hybrid procedures that combine conditional and
projection confidence intervals to offer further performance gains relative
to existing alternatives.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354
(See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When:* Wednesday, November 10 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
(Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for
the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the
first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may
also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm
for the presentations.)
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
(For the participants who cannot join the session physically.)
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn