Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting of the semester will be at *12:10 pm (EST) Wednesday,
October 20*, where Eli Ben-Michael <https://ebenmichael.github.io>(Harvard
University) presents "Safe Policy Learning through Extrapolation:
Application to Pre-trial Risk Assessment." This is joint work with D. James
Greiner (Harvard University), Kosuke Imai (Harvard University), and Zhichao
Jiang (University of Massachusetts, Amherst).
*Abstract*
Algorithmic recommendations and decisions have become ubiquitous in today's
society. Many of these and other data-driven policies are based on known,
deterministic rules to ensure their transparency and interpretability. This
is especially true when such policies are used for public policy
decision-making. For example, algorithmic pre-trial risk assessments, which
serve as our motivating application, provide relatively simple,
deterministic classification scores and recommendations to help judges make
release decisions. Unfortunately, existing methods for policy learning are
not applicable because they require existing policies to be stochastic
rather than deterministic. We develop a robust optimization approach that
partially identifies the expected utility of a policy, and then finds an
optimal policy by minimizing the worst-case regret. The resulting policy is
conservative but has a statistical safety guarantee, allowing the
policy-maker to limit the probability of producing a worse outcome than the
existing policy. We extend this approach to common and important settings
where humans make decisions with the aid of algorithmic recommendations.
Lastly, we apply the proposed methodology to a unique field experiment on
pre-trial risk assessments. We derive new classification and recommendation
rules that retain the transparency and interpretability of the existing
risk assessment instrument while potentially leading to better overall
outcomes at a lower cost.
*Where:* CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354
(See this link <https://map.harvard.edu/?bld=04471&level=9> for directions).
*When:* Wednesday, October 20 at 12:10 - 1:30 pm.
(Bagged lunches available for pick-up at CGIS K354 *11:30 - 11:45 am*, for
the participants who responded to our previous survey. The CGIS cafe on the
first floor has been designated as an eating area, and participants may
also use outdoor spaces for lunch. Please be present at K354 by 12:10 pm
for the presentations.)
*Zoom link*:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/97004196610?pwd=eGFydkF5RDRjUlk5RVcyTjV6OStUQT09
(For the participants who cannot join the session physically.)
*Schedule of the workshop*:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Looking forward to seeing you all on Wednesday!
Best,
Sooahn