Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community,
Our next meeting will be on October 25 (12:00 EST). Melody Huang presents
"Towards Credible Causal Inference under Real-World Complications:
Sensitivity Analysis for Generalizability"
<When>
October 25, 12:00 to 1:30 PM, EST
Lunch will be available for pick-up inside CGIS K354.
<Where>
In-person: CGIS K354
Zoom:
https://harvard.zoom.us/j/93217566507?pwd=elBwYjRJcWhlVE5teE1VNDZoUXdjQT09
<Abstract>
Randomized controlled trials (RCT’s) allow researchers to estimate causal
effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions.
However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target
population, researchers must adjust for a set of treatment effect
moderators. In practice, it is impossible to know whether the set of
moderators has been properly accounted for. In the following talk, I
propose a two parameter sensitivity analysis for generalizing or
transporting experimental results using weighted estimators. The
contributions in the paper are two-fold. First, I show that the sensitivity
parameters are scale-invariant and standardized. Unlike existing
sensitivity analyses in external validity, the proposed framework allows
researchers to simultaneously account for the bias in their estimates from
omitting a moderator, as well as potential changes to their inference.
Second, I propose several tools researchers can use to perform sensitivity
analysis: (1) graphical and numerical summaries for researchers to assess
how robust an estimated effect is to changes in magnitude as well as
statistical significance; (2) a formal benchmarking approach for
researchers to estimate potential sensitivity parameter values using
existing data; and (3) an extreme scenario analysis. While sensitivity
tools for routine reporting have been introduced for sensitivity frameworks
for outcome modeling approaches, these tools do not yet exist for weighted
estimators. Thus, the talk introduces a collection of methods that provide
much needed interpretability to sensitivity analyses, and a framework for
researchers to transparently and quantitatively argue about the robustness
in their estimated effects.
<2023 Schedule>
GOV 3009 Website:
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009
Calendar:
https://calendar.google.com/calendar/u/0?cid=Y18zdjkzcGF2OWZqa2tsZHJidTlzbm…
Best,
Jialu
--
Jialu Li
Department of Government
Harvard University
jialu_li(a)g.harvard.edu