Hi all,
This week at the Applied Statistics workshop we will be welcoming Isaiah Andrews, an
Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at MIT. He will be presenting work
entitled "Identification of and correction for publication bias" (joint work
with Maximilian Kasy). Please find the abstract below and on the website.
We will meet in CGIS Knafel Room 354 at noon and lunch will be provided.
Best,
Pam
Title: "Identification of and correction for publication bias"
Joint with Maximilian Kasy (Harvard)
Abstract:
Not all empirical results are published, and the probability that a given result is
published may depend on the result. Such selective publication can lead to biased
estimators and distorted inference. We discuss identification of selectivity, and in
particular of the conditional probability of publication as a function of a study's
results. We propose two approaches to identification, the first based on systematic
replication studies, and the second based on meta-studies. Having identified the form of
selectivity, we propose median-unbiased estimators and associated confidence sets. We
apply our methods to recent large-scale replication studies in experimental economics and
experimental psychology, where we find strong evidence of selection based on statistical
significance. We also apply our methods to a meta-study of minimum wage effects, where we
find larger publication probabilities for studies reporting a negative effect on
employment, and to a meta-study of de-worming programs, where our findings are ambiguous.
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