[gov3009-l] GOV 3009 (Applied Stats Workshop), 10/11 -- Soichiro Yamauchi

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Our next meeting will be on October 11 (12:00 EST). Soichiro Yamauchi presents "Statistical Analysis with Machine Learning Predicted Variables." <When> October 11, 12:00 to 1:30 PM, EST Lunch will be available for pick-up inside CGIS K354. <Where> In-person: CGIS K354 Zoom: https://harvard.zoom.us/j/93217566507?pwd=elBwYjRJcWhlVE5teE1VNDZoUXdjQT09 <Abstract> Scholars in the social sciences are increasingly relying on machine learning (ML) techniques to construct data from large corpora of text and images. The ML-generated variables are subsequently utilized in statistical analysis to address substantive questions through regression and hypothesis testing. However, this approach can introduce substantial bias and lead to incorrect inferences due to prediction errors during the machine learning stage. In this paper, we present an approach that incorporates ML-generated variables into regression analysis while ensuring consistency and asymptotic normality. The proposed approach leverages a small-scale human-coded sample to capture the bias in the naive estimator, without the need for strict assumptions about the structure of prediction errors. Furthermore, we have developed diagnostic tools to assess whether additional human coding can further reduce variance in the main analysis. We illustrate the effectiveness of our method by revisiting a study on the sources of election fraud with ballot image data and regression analysis. <2023 Schedule> GOV 3009 Website: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009 Calendar: https://calendar.google.com/calendar/u/0?cid=Y18zdjkzcGF2OWZqa2tsZHJidTlzbm… Best, Jialu -- Jialu Li Department of Government Harvard University jialu_li(a)g.harvard.edu