[gov3009-l] Applied Stats Wkshop: Daniel Ho this Wed@noon

*************************************** Research Workshop in Applied Statistics *************************************** Please join us this Wednesday @ noon at CBRSS, the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences, 34 Kirkland St., Rm 22, for a presentation by Daniel E. Ho: "Shaken, Not Stirred: Evidence on Ballot Order Effects from the California Alphabet Lottery, 1982 - 2002" (coauthored with Kosuke Imai) Abstract We answer the longstanding question of whether the name order of candidates on ballots affects election outcomes by analyzing a rare natural experiment. Since 1975, California law has mandated randomizing the ballot order for statewide offices with a lottery, wherein the letters of the alphabet would be "shaken vigorously" in a container. Previous studies, relying overwhelmingly on non-randomized data, have reached no consensus on whether ballot order effects even exist. Our analysis of statewide elections from 1982 to 2002 reveals that in general elections ballot order significantly impacts minor party candidates, while having inconclusive effects on major party candidates. In primaries, however, being listed first benefits all parties. Major party candidates generally gain one to three percentage points, while minor party candidates may double their vote shares. In both general and primary elections, we find the largest effect for nonpartisan races where candidates in first position gain three percentage points. As always, lunch will be provided. Contact information, the current schedule, and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ ****************************************** The Research Workshop in Applied Statistics is a forum for graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss work in progress and exchange ideas. It is intended as a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different disciplines such as economics, epidemiology, medicine, political science, psychology, public policy, public health, sociology and statistics. The topics of papers presented in previous years included missing data, survey analysis, Bayesian simulation, sample selection, and models for election and portfolio choice. Faculty and student participants in the workshop present their current projects, and guest speakers also give occasional presentations. The workshop provides an excellent opportunity for informal interaction between graduate students and faculty from a variety of disciplines. Course credit is available for students as either an upper-level Government or Sociology class. Lunch is provided. If you are interested, note that all events are held at noon, in Room 22, Center for Basic Research in Social Sciences (CBRSS, 34 Kirkland St., this is the yellow building across the street from William James Hall). Contact information and previous presentations may be found at the course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov3009/ To join the gov3009 mailing list, send e-mail to gov3009-l-request(a)fas.harvard.edu with the following text message: subscribe end