[gov3009-l] GOV 3009 (Applied Stats Workshop), 3/1 Laura Hatfield

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Our next meeting of the semester will be on March 1 (12:00 EST). Laura Hatfield will present "Adaptive metrics for an evolving pandemic." <Where> CGIS K354 Bagged lunches are available for pick-up at 11:40 (CGIS K354). Zoom: https://harvard.zoom.us/j/99181972207?pwd=Ykd3ZzVZRnZCSDZqNVpCSURCNnVvQT09 <Abstract> Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have proposed risk metrics, such as the CDC Community Levels, to guide local and state decision-making. However, risk metrics have not reliably predicted key outcomes and often lack transparency in terms of prioritization of false positive versus false negative signals. They have also struggled to maintain relevance over time due to slow and infrequent updates. In this talk, I will highlight recent work that makes two key contributions to address these weaknesses of risk metrics. I first present a framework to evaluate predictive accuracy based on policy targets related to severe disease and mortality, allowing for explicit preferences toward false negative versus false positive signals. This approach allows policymakers to optimize metrics for specific preferences and interventions. Second, I will present a novel method to update risk thresholds in real-time. Our proposed adaptive metrics have a unique advantage in a rapidly evolving pandemic context. In this talk, I also connect these ideas to new causal identification strategies in difference-in-differences. <2022-2023 Schedule> GOV 3009 Website: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009 Calendar: https://calendar.google.com/calendar/embed?src=c_3v93pav9fjkkldrbu9snbhned8… Best, Shusei