[gov3009-l] GOV 3009 (Applied Stats Workshop), 2/14 -- Teppei Yamamoto

Dear Applied Statistics Workshop Community, Our next meeting will be on Wednesday, February 14 (12:00 EST). Teppei Yamamoto presents "Using Covariates to Improve Inference in the Preference-Incorporating Choice and Assignment (PICA) Design for Randomized Controlled Trials" (joint with Adam Kaplan). <When> February 14, 12:00 to 1:30 PM, EST Lunch will be available for pick-up inside CGIS K354. <Where> In-person: CGIS K354 Zoom: https://harvard.zoom.us/j/93217566507?pwd=elBwYjRJcWhlVE5teE1VNDZoUXdjQT09 <Abstract> A key challenge in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is to ensure external validity so that findings from a study can inform real-world policy decisions, where individual decision-makers may self-select into different treatments based on their own preferences about the treatment options. If the effects of treatments depend on subjects' treatment preferences, the average treatment effects (ATEs) estimated in a standard RCT will be biased for the conditional ATEs among those who actually prefer to take the treatment. Knox et al. (2019) proposed a new experimental design, later coined the preference-incorporating choice and assignment (PICA) design (de Benedictis-Kessner et al., 2019), which employs double randomization to estimate the ATE conditional on treatment choice. In this paper, we extend the PICA design to incorporate subjects' pre-treatment characteristics which might confound effect heterogeneity even after conditioning on their stated preferences. This extension not only relaxes the key identification assumption in the original design to address possible bias but also potentially improves precision in the estimates. After establishing nonparametric identification results, we propose both frequentist and Bayesian approaches for inference and study their finite-sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate the proposed method with empirical application to media exposure experiments. <2023-2024 Schedule> GOV 3009 Website: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009 Calendar: https://calendar.google.com/calendar/u/0?cid=Y18zdjkzcGF2OWZqa2tsZHJidTlzbm… Best, Jialu -- Jialu Li Department of Government Harvard University jialu_li(a)g.harvard.edu